Planners Update 2011

Planners Part 4 - Town of Wasaga Beach: Nathan Wukasch, Planner

Nathan noted that there are 80 active development applications in Wasaga Beach, and added that many are driven by retirees. He stated that on average, 300-350 dwelling unit permits are issued per year. He noted that medium and high density growth has been significant. The development map is online.

He told us that the new firehall is being built, as well as a new library and several development projects are underway. New rules have been proposed around Bed and Breakfast establishments.

Strategic Planning: Wasaga Beach is developing a Special Events Strategy, Parks, Facilities and Recreation Master Plan, and Active Transit Plan and they are in the process of updating their Official Plan.

He drew our attention to the Beach Area 1 & 2 Visioning Exercise, where “over the past six months, the consulting team has been working in conjunction with a steering committee comprised of members of Council, businesses owners, local residents and Town staff. The purpose of the project is to establish a long term vision for the future development of the private and municipally held lands in the area of Beach Areas One and Two and enhance tourism opportunities; while ensuring continued public access to the beach. Input and ideas from the community has played a key role in the overall project.” Although the final report is not complete, some of the ideas coming forth from this visioning are: a festival square, realignment of Mosley St., continuous boardwalk, pedestrian bridges across the river, riverwalk, treed continuous promenade, indoor family attractions.

Nathan commented that the province has legislated that 2nd units will be allowed in all single family homes – municipalities need to decide on implementation.

Wind Power – none proposed in Wasaga Beach

Business Park – close to intersection of Highway 26 and Mosley in early stages of marketing.

Wasaga Beach has 11 family doctors and a community health centre – recruitment continues to be a priority.

Wasaga Beach now has fully accessible transit with 2 buses, 7 days per week and now a transit link to Collingwood 6 days per week 6-9 a.m. and 3-7 p.m.

Related Posts:

Part 1:  Meaford
Part 2: Blue Mountains
Part 3:  Collingwood

I’m happy to report that the real estate market is alive and well in Canada including here in the Collingwood – Blue Mountain and area marketplace.  2011 followed very similar patterns to other economic sectors with a slow start in the first half of the year and a gradual improvement leading to a pretty strong finish in the last quarter.

The economic turbulence that we are witnessing around the world did not lead to a retreat in residential sales and prices.  While we are not immune to the effects of global turmoil, Canadians seem to be proactive in advance of rising housing values and expected rising interest rates ahead.  Here’s how things looked locally.

There were a total of 1869 sales of all types in all areas reporting on the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® MLS® system.  In addition to 1161 single family home sales, there were also 352 condo sales, 127 vacant land sales and 35 sales of industrial or commercial land and buildings

(Point of Interest: There were an average of less than 10 sale ends per REALTOR®)

Of the 1869 total sales:
• 584 (31.2%) were under $200,00
• 686 sales (36.7%) were between $200-$300,000
• 422 Sales (22.6%) were priced between $300-$500,000
• Almost 68% of all sales were below $300,000
• 177 (9.5%) were over $500,000 representing the top tier of the Georgian Triangle marketplace.  There were 29 sales over the one million dollar mark including 7 over 1.5 million.

Here is a chart showing the number of sales, of all types, in the full area month by month:

Click to Enlarge

While the year started out well behind 2010, by the final quarter, sales in 2011 pulled well ahead of 2010 with a strong finish in the month of December. 

At the end of December, there were 1722 properties listed for sale compared to 1592 in December 2010.  So while we are seeing an increase in demand, we also have increased supply which has the effect of holding the sales-to-listing ratio below 30%.  This means that it is still buyer’s market conditions in most areas.

The Georgian Triangle reporting area includes several communities that overlap with other reporting areas such as Essa, Tiny, Mulmur, Springwater and areas completely outside of our board area.  These are all included in the statistics yet may not present an accurate view of those communities. 

Below is a breakdown of sales data for the six KEY areas of the Georgian Triangle including Collingwood, Blue Mountain, Wasaga Beach, Meaford, Clearview and Grey Highlands.

Click to enlarge

Click to Enlarge

Note:  2007 was a peak year that was followed by a recession in mid 2008- mid 2009.  You can see by the charts that the recovery has been slow but steady.  I wouldn’t say we aspire to reach 2007 levels again soon as it was an inflated boom year. Despite that, average sale prices have clearly risen well beyond that point.

Here is a breakdown showing the 12 month average, single family residential sale price (Number of Sales By Area)

Collingwood  $289,747 (303)
Blue Mountains  $552,280 (153)
Wasaga Beach  $276,400 (385)
Clearview  $293,098 (155)
Meaford   $288,991   (88)
Grey Highlands  $325,521   (77)

CONDOMINIUMS

Condominiums represent a large part of the market – especially in Collingwood and Blue Mountain were 93% of all area condo sales take place.  Condominiums in fact represented 40% of all dwelling units sold in Collingwood in 2011 and 45% of dwelling unit sales in the Town of Blue Mountains.  Here is a chart with a breakdown of sales and average sale prices:

Click to Enlarge

 Predictions

It looks like I was lucky AGAIN with my predictions last year for the 2011 market since they turned out as I had projected. At this point, I feel like I’m tempting fate to go for another year but hey, what’s the worst that can happen?  I’ll never hold as bad a record as poor Garth Turner!

- I think we’ll see a slowdown in local housing starts with some new development plans shelved for awhile due to a continued over-supply in the new home market

- Continued stability and momentum for at least the 1st half of 2012.  After that, potential interest rate hikes and global market instability could moderately cool the housing market if at all

- I suspect we will see an increase of about 1% in average sale prices due to the continued strength in the upper tier market.  This does not translate to a general increase in residential median prices

- It’s possible that the combination of high consumer debt loads and slower economic growth may lead to a new round of tightened mortgage regulations but any impact of that, if any, is impossible to predict without knowing what those changes might be.

- Consumer confidence in Canada has remained surprisingly high and investors are anxious to increase their real estate holdings while money is cheap and other financial markets generate poor returns.  As people continue to buy to get ahead of potential rising interest rates and prices, this area in particular is poised to remain stable.

- Unless there is a significant shift in economic policies or crisis in the global markets, I would expect that the number of sales in 2012 will be at least equal to 2011 or more likely, slightly higher than in 2011.

So here we go.  Let the buying and selling begin.  Happy New Year!

P.S.  If you haven’t already done so, you may wish to subscribe to my monthly newsletter with updated market conditions, local news, great new businesses in town and some great tips.  You can subscribe by clicking here.

• Check out the Ice Sculpture Festival from December 27 – 31 in Downtown Collingwood  PS.  There is free parking Downtown now until January 1st, 2012

• Go Bowling in Collingwood or Meaford

• Rewind and rejuvenate at the Scandinave Spa

• Try out the new Ridge Runner Mountain Coaster at Blue

• Go to an arcade in Creemore

• Go skating of course!

• Head on Over to Rounds Ranch Pardner!

• Play Paintball or Laser Tag in Wasaga Beach

If by some miracle the snow should decide to fall, here are a few more ideas:

• How about a snowshoe tour?  

• Cross-country, snowshoe or hike along the trails and across the suspension bridge at  Scenic Caves 

• Rent a snowmobile for an hour or a day

• Take the family Dog Sledding in Rob Roy!

Do you have some favourite ideas to share?  Please add your comments and let everyone else know too.

This fall, a family from east of here purchased a condo in Craigleith and spent their first week-end their over Thanksgiving.  Here is what they said in their latest email:

“We picked up the keys on Thursday evening, went home and the drove back Friday evening. We stayed for the entire long weekend. I think it was the best Thanksgiving weekend for weather I have ever seen.  The colour change on the mountain was beautiful . We had a great time (no buyers remorse). We love the location. We sat on the patio several times and had a meal while looking at Georgian Bay. We did lots of walks, went to the Village. Roasted marshmallows on the shore at night.  It was a nonstop weekend but great.  We were doing lots of shopping too, as all the wall coverings and other small items we were looking for new pictures, art, etc. to make it feel home like. Lots of fun.  Toured a lot of the apple festival studios like the rest of the tourists. Long story short we are very happy with the purchase. Looking forward to seeing you some time for a beverage on the patio.”

This wonderful family of four bought a condominium in Heritage Corners in June and here is what they had to say in an email to me last week (re-printed with permission):

“ Since June, we have been to Blue Mountain almost every weekend.  We have only skipped two weekends- one for our son’s piano concert and one for my husband’s birthday. We never realized how much joy this vacation home was going to bring to our family.  All of us look forward to going there. 

Last weekend , it  was our son’s birthday, and the forecast was not great so we decided to stay home. He was not pleased with our decision, so on Friday we decided to go anyway. I made a plan for bad weather (movies, shopping), but it turned out to be one of the best weekends ever. We went biking in the morning, and in the afternoon we went to GNE fair which was the biggest fair we have ever been  to.  We ended our day at Alphorn where we ate the world’s biggest schnitzels and the staff sang Happy Birthday to our boy who said it was the best celebration he ever had.”

They have also become fast friends and it’s a delight to both see them and hear about their adventures in discovering all the delights of our region.

As a REALTOR®, my main focus is on selling homes.  While I do from time to time assist people in their search, it isn’t something I specialize in and sadly, there are very few services in the area that do.  Here are some ideas:

- Check the local newspaper websites; online version are more current
- Check www.kijiji.ca where more and more rental listings are posted
- Check www.realtor.ca to see what might be listed on the MLS® system
- Drive around and look for vacancy signs
- Check notice boards in supermarkets and Laundromats
- Post your needs on social media sites like Facebook
- Check the Access To Housing website at http://accesstohousing.simcoe.ca
- Best of all, use the internet.  Google something like “houses for rent in (name of town)” and you may be surprised at what you find.

For people with complex housing needs, the challenge is greater.  Perhaps a physical challenge or lack of transportation is a barrier.  There is some good news in that the local Housing Resource Centre has just begun offering their services using Skype as a mode of communication.  Individuals in Grey County without computers can access the services of the Housing Resources Centre using Skype which is available at the following locations:

- Beaver Valley Outreach at 64 Bruce St in Thornbury
- Grey Highlands Public Library at 101 Highlands Dr in Flesherton
- Meaford Public Library and 15 Trowbridge St West in Meaford.

The Housing Resource Centre is located in Collingwood and can also be reached by calling 705-445-0643 or toll free at 855-343-0677.

In just the last month, Collingwood hosted both the largest Elvis Festival in the world as well as Wakestock.  Next up is Wordstock;  a downtown literary festival running September 9 -10, 2011. It is a celebration of WORDS and LITERARY ARTS in written and other artistic forms of expression such as spoken word, music, art, interpretive dance and more.

Full disclosure – I am co-chairing the festival again this year and therefore admit I have a bias toward how fabulous the event promises to be.  Considering that the first Wordstock in 2010 garnered raved reviews, a sold out opening show and capacity filled venues, I think it’s a good bet.  The buzz and excitement for this year are running high.

Wordstock kicks off this year with an Opening Night Show called Off The Page.  This cabaret style show features a wide ranging showcase of words expressed through native drumming and storytelling, through poetry, music, interpretive dance, puppetry and more.  The host for the show is Canada’s favourite funny man, comedian and author, Seán Cullen!  This is the only event that requires a ticket but they are just $27.00.

On Saturday, over two dozen free events take place in several venues around Downtown Collingwood.  There are author readings, a full poetry line-up and slam, events for young adults and children too, workshops and special presentations by two authors and popular CBC Radio hosts: Terry O’Reilly and Dr. Brian Goldman.  With people like NY Times best-selling author Kelley Armstrong, Leacock winner, Trevor Cole, Master Gatherer John R Colombo and many other top-of-the-line guests, there is something for everyone!

Full details can be found on the festival website.  Word of advice:  tickets sold out last year for Off The Page so be sure to get yours soon.

Observations for the month of July:

• For the first time since February 2011, sales for the month were up over 2010 levels with 9% more sales (175 versus 160 in July 2010)
• All of the gain was in the Town of Collingwood where the number of sales were up 15.1% over July 2010.  Meaford continues to struggle this year with sales down 24% and in Grey Highlands, they wer down 19%.  All other areas were down less than 5%.
• The 12 month average residential sale price was up in each area of the Georgian Triangle by 5-10% over this time last year
• The number of new listings for the month was up 12% over July 2010 while the number of expired listings were down by 2%
• Of the 175 sales posted in July, 145 were residential sales with 70 being priced from $150,000 – $249,999, 51 from $250,000 – $499,999 and 15 were over $500,000.
• The YTD sales to listing ratio is strongest in Collingwood at 45% suggesting reasonably balanced market conditions
• The average residential sale price, YTD in the Georgian Triangle was $321,726.
• At the end of the month, there were 2525 active listings for sale.

The chart below shows Year To Date data for all areas included in the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board Area. 

Even though Beach Area 1 in Wasaga Beach has seen many changes in the last few years since the great fire, some things never change.  While poodle-skirted gals and side-burned guys are rockin’ to Elvis in Collingwood this week-end, the beach crowd is out in full force in Wasaga.  Even kitchy (but oh so fun) stores like Pedro’s, a fixture of many years, seem to be doing a brisk trade.

Have I mentioned I love living here?

In the month of June, there were 196 sales including 173 residential sales (single family homes, condominiums, manufactured homes), 11 farms, 10 parcels of vacant land and 2 commercial sales.  The majority of residential sales activity was concentrated in the $150,000 to $250,000 price ranges.

Statistics generally mean very little when looked in isolation from other comparative data.  This month, I thought it may be helpful to give some context to our data by looking back over the last five years.  Note that 2007 was the peak year that broke all previous records and, 2009 data most strongly reflected the 08/09 recession.

Key Points:

• There is a strong supply of listing inventory
• Sales have been relatively stable but not robust.  While sales are down from 2010, last year included sales created by pent-up demand from the ’09 “recession.”
• Upper tier sales (anything over 500,000 is generally in the top 10% of the local market place) continue to be strong following the trend that began last year.  This suggests continued interest in our local market from high net-worth individuals who are benefitting from recovering stock market portfolios, substantial equity gains and, are in many cases approaching retirement.

Taking a closer look, below is a chart isolating residential sales only in the six key areas of the Georgian Triangle Market.

Key Points:

• Generally speaking, it is a buyer’s market in most areas of the Georgian Triangle with the exception being the Town of Collingwood where more balanced market conditions currently exist.
• The 12 month average residential sale price is up in all of the key areas and most notably in Collingwood and Blue Mountain.  This figure represents an average sale price – not a median therefore, the numbers are higher due to the increase in upper tier sales in those two markets.
• Over-all, the average price is up about 10% in the last five years
• Over one-third of all sales in the Collingwood and Blue Mountain areas were condominiums

I’m certainly hearing lots of REALTORS® express some concern about the market being a little slow.  Many properties are sitting on the market longer and we are seeing lots of price reductions coming through.  Less than 1 in 3 properties listed for sale sells during the listing period yet, some properties are experiencing multiple offers and quick sales.

Sellers need to be sharp with their pencils as pricing is the single most important factor in getting a home sold.  Buyers also have high expectations and lots of choice so having homes in tip-top condition and in good showing form, is increasingly important.

Buyers have the luxury right now of ample choice and low interest rates.  Prices are not dropping but rates will inevitably climb so buyers are well advised to get into the market but with attention to value and affordability.