There were some competing offers this past month on in-town, residential properties in most of the towns we serve but again, they were ones priced under $225,000 and in good condition.  We also saw competing offers on some condominiums that were well located (water views) and in pristine condition with excellent pricing.  It seems that buyers really are looking for new, shiny and move-in units.

The sales to listing ratio is in balanced market conditions in Collingwood but remains in buyers market territory in all other areas served by our board.  Meaford in particular has had a challenging year.  Here is a snapshot, by area, of the six main communities we serve.

There are currently 2226 properties listed for sale, of all types, in the whole of the Georgian Triangle.

It’s always a pleasure to meet new people and to assist them in meeting their real estate goals. If you would like to schedule a buyer or seller consultation with me, please feel free to email me or call at 705-446-1762.

Most Active Price Ranges

The most active price range for residential sales was from $200,000 to $249,999 followed closely by the $250,000 to $299,999 price band. 65% of all sales so far this year have been under $300,000 and there have been 6 sales over $1m this year compared to 9 in Q1 2012.

Strongest Demand

The highest number of residential sales in the first quarter were in Collingwood (78 sales) and Wasaga Beach (76) although the largest increase in sales was in the Town of Blue Mountain with 45 sales compared to 35 in the first quarter last year.

Condominium MLS ® Sales Activity

There were 68 condo sales in Q1 2013 versus 66 for the same period last year and generally speaking, there appear to be about 20-30 condominium sales in our area each month. Average sale prices appear to be in lower price bands however, this number of sales is not a large enough sampling to see a specific trend at this point.

How Many Are For Sale Now?

The total number of listings was down over last year by 5% in March at 4% over-all in Q1. There were over 1500 properties listed for sale in this first quarter and there are presently 2044 properties for sale on the Georgian Triangle MLS® system.

What Next?

With sales relatively stable, interest rates stable and no big economic shifts on the local horizon, the market is likely to continue in lock step to 2012 for the foreseeable future.

All data herein has been captured from the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® MLS® statistics.

I’m happy to report that the real estate market did continue to be alive and well in the Georgian Triangle area marketplace.  The year started out strong and remained stable through most of the year with some softening in the last two months of 2012.

First, some trivia for your next cocktail party or bowling bash:  Did you know that 76% of all sales of all kinds in the Georgian Triangle were under $350,000? On the other hand, did you know that, according to Macleans magazine, Collingwood ranks 14th in Canada for having the most one-percenters (folks who earn over $250,000 a year) per 1,000 people?

Once again, the negative world economic news we were bombarded with in the media did not lead to a retreat in residential sales or sale prices in our region. Interest rates remained surprisingly stable, Canada continued to post new job growth and housing values continued to grow at a moderate pace.

There were a total of 1953 sales of all types in all areas reported on the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® (GTAR) MLS® system last year.  In addition to 1306 single family home sales, there were also 353 condo sales, 125 vacant land sales and 34 sales/25 leases  of industrial or commercial land and buildings.  It is worth noting that the number of condo, land and ICI sales were almost identical to the previous year with all gains having been made in the single family home market.

(Point of Interest: This represents an average of about 9 sales ends per REALTOR® for the year)

Of the 1953 total sales:

• 580 were under $200,00
• 912 sales were between $200-$349,999
• 262 sales were priced between $350-$499,999
• Almost 76% of all sales were below $350,000
• 199 were over $500,000 representing the top 10% of sales in the Georgian Triangle marketplace.  There were 26 sales over the one million dollar mark including 4 over 1.5 million.

Here is a chart showing the number of sales, of all types, in the full area month by month:
At the end of December, there were 1764 properties listed for sale; almost the exact same inventory level as we started out the year with.  Through the course of the year, there were a total of 6524 properties listed for sale.  After adjusting for the carry-over into the new year, it should be noted that less than 1 in 3 properties for sale sells.

The year ended with a sales-to-listing ratio of 29.94% compared to 28.81% at the end of 2011. This means that it is still a buyer’s market in most areas however, we have micro markets in the Georgian Triangle and it is very important to consider your own market individually.  For example, the residential sales to listing ratios in Collingwood and Wasaga Beach are over 40% and in stable market territory; neither a buyers nor sellers market whereas areas like Meaford and the Town of Blue Mountains are solidly in buyer’s market ranges.

The Georgian Triangle reporting area includes several communities that overlap with other reporting areas such as Essa, Tiny, Mulmur, Springwater and areas completely outside of our board area.  These are all included in the statistics yet may not present an accurate view of those communities.

Below is a breakdown of sales data for the six KEY areas of the Georgian Triangle including Collingwood, Blue Mountain, Wasaga Beach, Meaford, Clearview and Grey Highlands.

CONDOMINIUMS

Condominiums represent a large part of the market – especially in Collingwood and Blue Mountain where over 90% of all area condo sales take place.  Condominiums represented 37.8% of all dwelling units sold in Collingwood in 2012 and 42.6 of dwelling unit sales in the Town of Blue Mountains.  Here is a chart with a breakdown of sales and average sale prices:

Georgian Triangle (all areas) 2012 MLS® Condominium Sales

Total Units Sold (2011 in brackets):    353 (352)
Average List Price:            $248,564 ($241,998)
Average Sale Price:            $238,641 ($231,101)

Collingwood Only:
Average Condominium Sale Price by Number of bedrooms (No. of sale in brackets)

•    0/1 br            $170,436  (14)
•    2 br            $185,776  (90)
•    3 br            $308,762  (75)
•    4+ br            $381,039  (22)

Town of Blue Mountains Only:
Average Condominium Sale Price by Number of bedrooms (No. of sale in brackets)

•    0/1 br            $125,226  (31)
•    2 br            $122,144  (36)
•    3 br            $296,490  (37)
•    4+ br            $373,857  (14)

Comments:  Average sale prices of condominiums in Collingwood climbed significantly but may be due to the final release and sales of The Shipyards condominiums which were not sold via the MLS® in prior years.  Condominium sale prices moderated in most areas of the Town of Blue Mountains led by price declines in and around the Village at Blue where supply exceeds demand.

 Predictions:  I got so stressed about predicting again that I did it a few days ago in a separate post which you can read here.  All in all, more of the same ahead.

Now, please tell me what YOU think. At least let me know you read this so I know my Saturday morning has been well spent doing this instead of laundry.  Thanks.

P.S.  If you haven’t already done so, you may wish to subscribe to my monthly newsletter with updated market conditions, local news, great new businesses in town and some great tips.  You can subscribe by clicking here.

MLS® sales activity reported through the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® (which includes the municipalities of Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, Clearview, The Blue Mountains, Grey Highlands and Meaford) posted a gain of 7.8% Year-to-Date to the end of September 2012 with 1520 properties changing hands in the first nine months of the year versus 1410  for the same period in 2011. Overall, September Year-to-Date (YTD) sales volume in 2012 totalled $443.1 million reflecting a 6.0% increase over September YTD 2011 sales of $417.8 million.

Most Active Price Ranges

Sales activity in several price ranges showed improvement in the 3rd quarter of 2012 compared to the same period last year. Unit sales below $250,000 totalled 256 in the 3rd quarter of 2012 marking a 7.2% decrease over 3rd quarter 2011 results; in the $250,000 – $499,999 price range, 3rd quarter sales of 233 properties represented a healthy 22.0% increase over the 3rd quarter of 2011. In the $500,000 – $999,999 price range, 3rd quarter sales of 48 properties reflected a 6.7% increase in this price range for 2012, compared to the 45 properties sold in the 3rd quarter of 2011. Lastly, sales activity in the $1 million plus price range during the 3rd quarter of 2012 totalled 8 properties, compared to the 7 homes sold over $1 million in the 3rd quarter of 2011.

The number of new MLS® listings during the 3rd quarter of 2012 totalled 1,628 units, down 9.4% from the 3rd quarter of 2011.  The number of expired listings year-to-date 2012 totalled 2,255 properties, up 5.5% over the same period last year.

The month of July 2012 was the strongest listings month of the 3rd quarter, with  557 new MLS® listings, and the month of August 2012 was the strongest sales month of the 3rd quarter with 200 sales.     Third quarter’s statistics reflect the fact that approximately 1 in every 4 houses listed for sale, actually sell.

Click to Enlarge

Strongest Demand

The Municipality of Grey Highlands and The Blue Mountains showed the strongest demand for residential homes with September YTD 2012 MLS® sales activity up 50.0% and 19.3% respectively, versus September YTD 2011.  The Town of Wasaga Beach and the Town of Collingwood had significant increases in MLS® sales activity September YTD 2012, up 16.1% and 14.4% respectively, versus September YTD 2011.  Residential sales in the Municipality of Meaford for September YTD 2012 were up 6.8% from September YTD 2011 figures, whereas MLS® residential sales activity in the Township of Clearview was down 5.2% in September YTD 2012 figures versus September YTD 2011.

Condominium MLS ® Sales Activity

There were 82 condos sold in Collingwood and the Blue Mountains during the 3rd quarter of this year compared to 90 last year.  Year-to-date, 220 condo’s sold in these same two areas by September 30th compared to 237 in the same period for 2011.  While down marginally, this is not significant and average sale prices have increased during the same period.

How Many Are For Sale Now?

There are currently 2,476 properties for sale in the entire Georgian Triangle MLS® system including about 1702 residential properties. When you break that down further, there are 205 homes and 169 condominiums for sale in the Town of Collingwood and, 197 homes and 198 condos in the Town of Blue Mountains. Let me know if you would like a breakdown of the other communities we serve.

What Next?

While market conditions are expected to remain stable in the 4th quarter of 2012, I’m not entirely convinced and believe sellers may want to really sharpen their pricing and presentation. While third quarter performance was strong, sales in the month of September alone were down by a full 10% compared to September 2011.  We are seeing softening in the markets all around us and while we know the Georgian Triangle communities are unique, we are not immune to economic realities.

Despite the positive year-to-date numbers, there are almost 11 months of inventory available which is about a 20% increase over the same period as last year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

Details of July’s activity are on the charts below which you can enlarge them by clicking on them.

The Georgian Triangle real estate market varies dramatically by area and so, each community should be looked at individually when making decision.  If you look at the six key areas on the charts below, you’ll note that residential sales climbed in each area while the average sale prices moderated.  This is an indication of more moderately priced homes changing hands rather than in the upper tiers of the marketplace.

If the same seasonal patterns continue in 2012 that we have seen in the past few years, the market should continue to stay strong at least into October barring any dramatic shifts in interest rates or other economic surprises.

It’s always a pleasure to meet new people and to assist them in meeting to their real estate goals.  If you would like to schedule a buyer or seller consultation with me, please feel free to contact me anytime at 705-446-1762 or send me an email.

The number of new listings year-to-date is up 10% overall led by Meaford (94%) and Blue Mountains (26%) over last year.

The average sale price in the six key areas of the Georgian Triangle as shown below is relatively constant and offset somewhat by fewer sales over $500,000.  Details are on the charts below and you can enlarge them by clicking on them.

If the same seasonal patterns continue in 2012 that we have seen in the past few years, the market should continue to stay strong at least into October barring any dramatic shifts in interest rates or other economic surprises.  One caveat:  with the listing inventory climbing in most areas, prices should remain stable or even moderate.  Sellers must continue to be competitive in their offerings and buyers need to exercise good judgment on values.

First of all, the StatCan website tells us:

“Canada’s 2011 Census held on May 10, 2011 counted 33,476,688 persons.  Between 2006 and 2011, Canada’s population grew by 1,863,791 persons, which translates to a growth rate of 5.9%. That is slightly higher than the 5.4% growth rate observed between the 2001 and 2006 censuses.”

They go on to say that the increase in population was related to an increase in the number of non-permanent residents and immigrants as well as higher fertility.

In our little corner of the world, here’s what the stats tell us happened over the last 5 years (between the 2006 census and the 2011 census):

Census 2011 and/vs. Census 2006 Results for Collingwood, Blue Mountains, Wasaga Beach, Meaford, Clearview

RESULTS FOR WASAGA BEACH

The 2011 Census indicates the town of Wasaga Beach had a population of 17,537, up 16.7% from the 2006 results. The national average growth is 5.9%.

Wasaga Beach’s land area is 58.43 square kilometres which equals a population density of 300.1 persons per square kilometre. Compare this to the provincial figures: land area is 908,607.67 square kilometres with a population density of 14.1 persons per square kilometre.

According to the 2011 Census, Wasaga Beach was comprised of 7,573 private dwellings occupied by usual residents, representing a change from 2006 figures of 21.4%. Canada as a whole saw the number of private dwellings occupied by usual residents increase 7.1%.

The Georgian Triangle area includes the communities of Clearview, Collingwood, Blue Mountain, Wasaga Beach, Grey Highlands, Meaford and surrounding areas such as Tiny, Springwater and Mulmur Townships to an extent.

Here are the highlights for the first quarter (January to March) of 2012:

NEW LISTINGS:  
During the quarter, there were 1628 properties of all kinds listed for sale compared to 1495 during Q1-11; an increase of 8.9%.  there were 618 properties listed in the month of March alone compared to 576 in March, 2011.  As of the end of the month, there were 2109 active listings for sale on the Georgian Triangle MLS®.

MARCH SALES:
There were 172 sales in March compared to 128 in February and 155 in March 2011.  The total number of sales in the first quarter of this year are the highest on record since I began tracking stats with 403 sales compared to the previous high of 387 back in March 2010. Of these, there were 66 condo sales with an average sale price of $242,080.

The most active RESIDENTIAL price ranges inMarch were as follows:

$120,000 – $$149,999 (15 sales)
$150,000 – $249,999 (69 sales)
$250,000 – $349,999 (39 sales)
$350,000 – 499,999 (12 sales)

There were 10 sales over $500,000 including 2 sales over $1 million.

Breakdown of  Residential Single Family Activity in 6 Key Areas

With the exceptions of Meaford and the Town of Blue Mountain, the sales-to-listing ratio has improved in all areas over the last year despite the significant increase in properties listed for sale this quarter.  Most areas in the Georgian Triangle, with the exception of the Town of Collingwood which is experiencing balanced conditions, are still in buyer’s market conditions.

All data collected from statistics provided by GTAR MLS®  

Planners Update 2011

Planners Part 4 - Town of Wasaga Beach: Nathan Wukasch, Planner

Nathan noted that there are 80 active development applications in Wasaga Beach, and added that many are driven by retirees. He stated that on average, 300-350 dwelling unit permits are issued per year. He noted that medium and high density growth has been significant. The development map is online.

He told us that the new firehall is being built, as well as a new library and several development projects are underway. New rules have been proposed around Bed and Breakfast establishments.

Strategic Planning: Wasaga Beach is developing a Special Events Strategy, Parks, Facilities and Recreation Master Plan, and Active Transit Plan and they are in the process of updating their Official Plan.

He drew our attention to the Beach Area 1 & 2 Visioning Exercise, where “over the past six months, the consulting team has been working in conjunction with a steering committee comprised of members of Council, businesses owners, local residents and Town staff. The purpose of the project is to establish a long term vision for the future development of the private and municipally held lands in the area of Beach Areas One and Two and enhance tourism opportunities; while ensuring continued public access to the beach. Input and ideas from the community has played a key role in the overall project.” Although the final report is not complete, some of the ideas coming forth from this visioning are: a festival square, realignment of Mosley St., continuous boardwalk, pedestrian bridges across the river, riverwalk, treed continuous promenade, indoor family attractions.

Nathan commented that the province has legislated that 2nd units will be allowed in all single family homes – municipalities need to decide on implementation.

Wind Power – none proposed in Wasaga Beach

Business Park – close to intersection of Highway 26 and Mosley in early stages of marketing.

Wasaga Beach has 11 family doctors and a community health centre – recruitment continues to be a priority.

Wasaga Beach now has fully accessible transit with 2 buses, 7 days per week and now a transit link to Collingwood 6 days per week 6-9 a.m. and 3-7 p.m.

Related Posts:

Part 1:  Meaford
Part 2: Blue Mountains
Part 3:  Collingwood

I’m happy to report that the real estate market is alive and well in Canada including here in the Collingwood – Blue Mountain and area marketplace.  2011 followed very similar patterns to other economic sectors with a slow start in the first half of the year and a gradual improvement leading to a pretty strong finish in the last quarter.

The economic turbulence that we are witnessing around the world did not lead to a retreat in residential sales and prices.  While we are not immune to the effects of global turmoil, Canadians seem to be proactive in advance of rising housing values and expected rising interest rates ahead.  Here’s how things looked locally.

There were a total of 1869 sales of all types in all areas reporting on the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® MLS® system.  In addition to 1161 single family home sales, there were also 352 condo sales, 127 vacant land sales and 35 sales of industrial or commercial land and buildings

(Point of Interest: There were an average of less than 10 sale ends per REALTOR®)

Of the 1869 total sales:
• 584 (31.2%) were under $200,00
• 686 sales (36.7%) were between $200-$300,000
• 422 Sales (22.6%) were priced between $300-$500,000
• Almost 68% of all sales were below $300,000
• 177 (9.5%) were over $500,000 representing the top tier of the Georgian Triangle marketplace.  There were 29 sales over the one million dollar mark including 7 over 1.5 million.

Here is a chart showing the number of sales, of all types, in the full area month by month:

Click to Enlarge

While the year started out well behind 2010, by the final quarter, sales in 2011 pulled well ahead of 2010 with a strong finish in the month of December. 

At the end of December, there were 1722 properties listed for sale compared to 1592 in December 2010.  So while we are seeing an increase in demand, we also have increased supply which has the effect of holding the sales-to-listing ratio below 30%.  This means that it is still buyer’s market conditions in most areas.

The Georgian Triangle reporting area includes several communities that overlap with other reporting areas such as Essa, Tiny, Mulmur, Springwater and areas completely outside of our board area.  These are all included in the statistics yet may not present an accurate view of those communities. 

Below is a breakdown of sales data for the six KEY areas of the Georgian Triangle including Collingwood, Blue Mountain, Wasaga Beach, Meaford, Clearview and Grey Highlands.

Click to enlarge

Click to Enlarge

Note:  2007 was a peak year that was followed by a recession in mid 2008- mid 2009.  You can see by the charts that the recovery has been slow but steady.  I wouldn’t say we aspire to reach 2007 levels again soon as it was an inflated boom year. Despite that, average sale prices have clearly risen well beyond that point.

Here is a breakdown showing the 12 month average, single family residential sale price (Number of Sales By Area)

Collingwood  $289,747 (303)
Blue Mountains  $552,280 (153)
Wasaga Beach  $276,400 (385)
Clearview  $293,098 (155)
Meaford   $288,991   (88)
Grey Highlands  $325,521   (77)

CONDOMINIUMS

Condominiums represent a large part of the market – especially in Collingwood and Blue Mountain were 93% of all area condo sales take place.  Condominiums in fact represented 40% of all dwelling units sold in Collingwood in 2011 and 45% of dwelling unit sales in the Town of Blue Mountains.  Here is a chart with a breakdown of sales and average sale prices:

Click to Enlarge

 Predictions

It looks like I was lucky AGAIN with my predictions last year for the 2011 market since they turned out as I had projected. At this point, I feel like I’m tempting fate to go for another year but hey, what’s the worst that can happen?  I’ll never hold as bad a record as poor Garth Turner!

- I think we’ll see a slowdown in local housing starts with some new development plans shelved for awhile due to a continued over-supply in the new home market

- Continued stability and momentum for at least the 1st half of 2012.  After that, potential interest rate hikes and global market instability could moderately cool the housing market if at all

- I suspect we will see an increase of about 1% in average sale prices due to the continued strength in the upper tier market.  This does not translate to a general increase in residential median prices

- It’s possible that the combination of high consumer debt loads and slower economic growth may lead to a new round of tightened mortgage regulations but any impact of that, if any, is impossible to predict without knowing what those changes might be.

- Consumer confidence in Canada has remained surprisingly high and investors are anxious to increase their real estate holdings while money is cheap and other financial markets generate poor returns.  As people continue to buy to get ahead of potential rising interest rates and prices, this area in particular is poised to remain stable.

- Unless there is a significant shift in economic policies or crisis in the global markets, I would expect that the number of sales in 2012 will be at least equal to 2011 or more likely, slightly higher than in 2011.

So here we go.  Let the buying and selling begin.  Happy New Year!

P.S.  If you haven’t already done so, you may wish to subscribe to my monthly newsletter with updated market conditions, local news, great new businesses in town and some great tips.  You can subscribe by clicking here.